Backtest
Status: Not passed yet. We do not publish verdicts until this test passes.
What it tests
Does the Hype Gap predict what happened to a project better than raw star growth does? We take about 100 projects from 2024 and 2025 and score them using only the data that existed at the time. Then we check what became of each one: still alive, abandoned, bought, or the default choice.
What must pass
The Hype Gap has to call those outcomes better than star velocity alone. If it does not, we fix the formula and run the test again before any verdict goes live.
What a passed call will look like
A verdict, the reasons behind it, links to the evidence, and the date we checked. This one is a sample.
SAMPLE Locked until the backtest passes. Made-up project, made-up numbers.
Quillbright MID
- Stars up 4x in a week, but downloads stayed flat.
- Three of the last four releases were version bumps with no changelog.
- One maintainer made 91% of the commits.
Evidence: Star history for the week, Download counts, Commit history. Each one will link to its source.
Checked 1 January 2025 (sample date).
See also the methodology.