Methodology

Cite this page: https://midorreal.com/methodology

What we measure today

GitHub runs hourly, at 5 minutes past the hour. Each run records stars, forks, open issues, watchers, whether the repo is archived, and days since the last push. Once a day, on the run during the midnight hour UTC, we also record contributor count and days since the latest release.

Hacker News runs every 15 minutes and reads new stories and the front page. During the first 15 minutes of each hour it also searches Algolia for mentions from the last 7 days.

We store counts, not the text of a post. A Hacker News mention is shown as "Hacker News post", with points, comments, and the date.

Each project page says how old the latest GitHub observation is, and how old the latest Hacker News check is.

What the four verdicts will mean

REALThe evidence holds up.

MIDIt works, but not what the noise says.

OVERHYPEDFar more attention than evidence.

SLEEPERFar more evidence than attention.

TOO EARLYNot enough data to call it.

Why there is no verdict yet

A verdict is published only after a backtest shows the call would have held up. That backtest has not passed. Until it does, every project carries a measured fact label instead of a verdict. We do not invent a score to look finished.

Labels you see today

Until verdicts publish, each project carries one label that states a measured fact. The first rule that matches wins. A missing number never triggers a rule.

Velocity is the star gain of the last 7 days divided by the project's usual weekly gain, which is the average weekly gain over the 4 weeks before that (days 8 to 35 ago). The usual gain is floored at 10 stars a week so tiny repos do not show huge multiples, and a project with no history that far back counts as the floor. "Blowing up" ranks by velocity, never by total stars, and needs at least 50 stars gained in 7 days.

Archived: The repo is archived by its owner.
Gone quiet: No commits in more than 90 days.
Surging: At least 1,000 stars gained in 7 days, or at least 300 in 24 hours.
Accelerating: This week's star gain is at least 3x the project's usual weekly gain (average of the 4 weeks before), and at least 50 stars.
Slipping: The star count fell over 7 days, or gained nothing in a week when it usually gains.
Cooling off: Usual weekly gain is at least 50 stars and this week's is under 40% of it.
More talk than stars: At least 150 Hacker News points in 7 days and fewer than 200 stars gained in 7 days.
Quiet climber: At least 300 stars gained in 7 days and no Hacker News points.
Being talked about: At least 50 Hacker News points in 7 days.
Watching: None of the above. Nothing stands out yet.

Corrections

If a figure is wrong, email hello@midorreal.com. The process, including disputes and takedowns, is on the corrections page. Changes we make are listed there.

A paid listing never changes a verdict.